Hokum-Balderdash Assay

A number of rather dissatisfied Jews have just put an ancient "Aramaic death curse" on Prime Minister Ariel Sharon for his decision to pull out of the Gaza Strip.

In a cemetery ceremony presided over by a rabbi, around 20 radicals held a "pulsa dinura", which means rod of fire in Aramaic, imploring God to curse a believed sinner, said the online edition of the Yediot Aharonot.

....

As befits tradition, only those who are married, meaning no widowers or divorcees, people aged over 40 and the bearded were able to attend the event...

The group urged "the angels of destruction" to kill Sharon, participants said, stressing that a human assassination attempt on the prime minister was "futile" given his massive security protection.

(Jewish extremists put ancient death curse on Sharon)

What I'd like to know is the total number of times this rite been seriously performed in the past and how many times it's worked. If it has had a batting average of 50% I'd like to have a copy of the liturgy please (I'm crossing my fingers and knocking on wood the curse works in English too). This nifty little spell will come in quite handy. Best of all, immunity from criminal liability is guaranteed.

Of course judging if it has worked is a little tricky. How long does it take for the "angels of destruction" to gas up, arm, and take off from their heavenly or netherworldly base and reach their target? An hour? 1 day? 1 week? A month? A year? Give it a long enough time frame and the probability that the victim died from other causes just piles up. (Maybe this is one reason why impatient terrorists opt for less supernatural means.) How would we know it wasn't someone else's curse that did the sinner/traitor in? How would we know know that the apparent killers--say, terrorists--weren't in any way assisted by our Deity's Angels? Is it possible to debrief the angels and find out if they in fact had accomplished their mission or if someone else had beaten them to the kill?

On the other hand, just in case Sharon doesn't get done in by their curse, there is almost certainly various possible "outs" available to the believers to rationalize failure. Doubt they will just bury their belief in the efficacy of pulsa dinura in the cemetery. Too much emotional and intellectual investment for that to happen. Cognitive dissonance in die-hards, as Leon Festinger tells us, will be dealt with in some other way.

We read in the article several parameters which this group has carefully taken care of and so those will probably be unavailable to them to blame. For instance, the participants have apparently strictly enforced the rule of permitting only married Jews older than 40 years in the rite. Only bearded men, and no widowers or divorcees were allowed. The article also says a participant described the cemetery as an ideal spot for the rite. So much for those factors.

But what about the weather for instance? Does tradition say anything about the particular weather or time of day or year necessary for the rite? How about bystanders including journalists around the perimeter? Is there a minimum radius specified? Was the curse recited loud/silent/fast/slow enough? Were all the participants serious and committed enough? Were they all wearing the proper attire? Are the "angels of destruction" fully under the control of these Jews or could these paid, I mean prayed for, mercenaries opt out of a hit? Etc. Various "backdoors" can be opened to explain away Sharon's tenacity. (Maybe Sharon has a talisman or an amulet.)

The article ends with an ominous "warning":

Far-right Israeli activists also held a "pulsa dinura" to pray for the death of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, a few days before the prime minister was assassinated by a Jewish extremist for trying to make peace with the Palestinians.

I see that this curse has had a previous success, a major one at that. Could be a reason why these Jews are trying their luck again. If so then this is another fine example of succumbing to the post hoc fallacy. I imagine that when asked if pulsa dinura works, die-hard believers would effusively relate the Rabin anecdote, thus reinforcing the superstitious belief and perpetuating this mind virus.